David Spates "Therefore I Am" Published Nov. 2, 2004

Mere politicians are no match for the streak

Votes are nice. The electoral college has a certain charm in its quirkiness. Red states, blue states, pundits, spin meisters, talking heads, strategists -- they have their roles in American politics, but they all come up short against the most powerful force of nature. The streak.

There are actually two streaks in play this Election Day, each pointing in a different direction. Sure, you could put your faith in a candidate's political platform, but you might want to rabbit-hole a little extra mojo as well. In one corner, we have the Redskins. In the other, we have Halloween masks. Redskins vs. masks. Democrats vs. Republicans. Only one streak can continue.

The Redskins streak is formidable. In the previous 15 elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the presidential race. When the 'Skins win, the incumbent wins. I knew there was a lot of backscratching and under-the-table dealings in DC, but that's the topper. You have to wonder how such a streak can possibly survive all these years, but it has.

Unfortunately for the president, the Redskins stink out loud this year. They lost at home Sunday to the Packers 28-14. The fat lady hasn't hit the stage just yet, but I think I heard her warming up. I won't bore you with the years, scores and winners and losers. Look it up if you don't believe me. That's what the Internet is for. It's all there.

A streak of 15 elections predicted with Redskins wins and losses is a lot of history to overcome. But streaks, like records, are made to be broken. Just ask the Red Sox about how futile it is to go up against decades of streaks, history and Yankee domination. Come to think of it, you might want to ask the New England Patriots too. They just saw their 21-game winning streak end Sunday.

But don't count out W just yet. There's a pretty lengthy (and equally shallow and coincidental) streak working in his favor. Since 1980, the candidate whose likeness sold more Halloween masks than his challenger has won the election. As of Halloween night, the tallies were decidedly in the president's favor. Of the two, Bush masks accounted for 54 percent, with Kerry's mug selling 46 percent.

Like I said, the history behind the all-important mask constituency is pretty impressive. In 1980, Reagan outsold Carter 60 percent to 40 percent. In 1984, Reagan pounded Mondale not only in the election, but also in mask sales, 68-32. In 1988, the senior Bush bested Dukakis 62-38, although I would have thought a Dukakis mask with a tank-driver's helmet would have been a hot seller. In 1992, Clinton squeaked by Bush 41-39, with the other 20 percent presumably going to that other Texan, Perot. Clinton rolled over Dole in 1996 with a 56-40 count. Finally, in 2000, Bush Jr. pounded Gore 57-43, although Democrats are quick to point out that many trick-or-treaters in Florida mistakenly purchased Bush masks when they in fact intended to buy Gore masks.

I also read that the Nixon mask is more popular than Bush or Kerry at some Halloween shops. If that's true, maybe we're in for a real shocker later tonight when the votes are counted.

Tricky Dick in 2004! It will be a write-in mandate from the people.

If you haven't voted yet, you might want too keep these streaks in mind. Your vote is absolutely important, don't get me wrong, but other factors are just as vital to America's governing process -- like how well the 'Skins offensive line plays and how expensive Bush's mask is compared to Kerry's. Maybe we should get a mask designer from Ben Cooper to read through vote totals tonight, and perhaps John Madden could do some color commentary. "Ohio goes to Kerry! BOOM! Florida goes to Bush! POW!"

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Remember last week when I said I'd contact the Disney public relations department and ask about the all-black ad? Well, I tried repeatedly to reach someone but came up with nothing. I'm sure they're busy with bigger issues like the shakeup at the top executive levels, but it seems like they could at least give me a "no comment." Incidentally, my mother spotted a nearly identical ad in a woman's magazine, but in this one everyone is the pictures is white. Go figure. It's a small world after all. It's a small, small world.

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David Spates is a Knoxville resident and Crossville Chronicle contributor whose column is published each Tuesday. He can be reached at davespates@chartertn.net.