Ed Wood "The Right Stuff" Published July 17, 2002

The old shell game
-- Rochelle game, that is

Remember the old "shell game" at the county fairs? The con man would cover a pea or other small object with one of three inverted cups, or "shells." Then he would shift the shells around and ask you to select the shell that covered the pea. Try as you might, you could never tell where the pea was hiding. Same today with state Sen. Robert Rochelle. Try as you might, you just can't be sure where he is hiding. Politically, that is.

By now you know the story. Sen. Robert Rochelle (D-Lebanon), 20-year veteran of the Tennessee General Assembly, Speaker pro tem of the Senate, and leader of the pro-income tax people, has quit. Well - sort of.

It all started Friday, July 5, with Sen. Rochelle's announcement that he was suspending his re-election campaign. He said he needed time to think through whether he wanted to remain in the General Assembly. Then on the following Tuesday, he formally announced that he would not seek re-election. But something is just a little strange here.

First of all, the stakes in Rochelle's re-election bid are extremely high. The Democrat party holds a slim 18 to 15 lead in the Senate. Rochelle is being challenged by Republican Mae Beavers, who has resigned her House position in order to run for Rochelle's Senate seat. Beavers is a strong no-income-tax proponent, and in the wake of the no-income-tax victory, is said to have a commanding lead in the polls, possibly as much as 40 percent!

Rochelle was losing, and he knew it. If the Republicans can win with Beavers in the 17th District, plus one more, say Bailey in the 15th, then the balance shifts from 18 Democrats and 15 Republicans to 16 Demos and 17 Repubs. The Democrat party would not only lose control of the Senate, but also the lieutenant governor's position, toppling the 30-year reign of John Wilder.

So what to do? It has to be something dramatic. Something emotional. Something to get favorable media attention, and maybe at the same time send a message to Beaver supporters that their race is over, that they have won, and should now go home. A victim. If Rochelle could be seen as the hapless victim of his untiring effort to enact the income tax that would have saved the state of Tennessee from financial ruin, that just might do it!

In his first statement, Rochelle cited "frustration and exhaustion" as his reason for resigning. Next, he blamed "life-threatening phone calls." "It's hard to describe the emotions felt when your family is harassed," said the Senator. But Mrs. Rochelle confessed there have been no death threats, and described her husband as being "just exasperated." The Lebanon Police and the TBI say no complaints of harassment have been filed.

Then the following Tuesday Rochelle reported he is not running for re-election because, "The fact is I do not want to spend the next four years tearing down what I have spent 20 years helping to build up." Whatever that means.

One problem, though. It's too late to have his name removed from the Aug. 1 primary ballot, and too late to add anyone else. Rochelle knows that. He has to. He has been through this process many times. His name will appear, and loyal supporters will vote for him. Of course, Democrat operatives will offer a write-in candidate. But if Rochelle receives one more vote than his write-in opponent, his name then goes onto the Nov. 5 ballot as the Democrat candidate, opposing Mae Beavers.

And it's already working! Rochelle has received his media attention, mostly favorable, citing his years of faithful service to party and country. Gone is any mention of his lagging in the polls. Democrat Party Chairman Bill Farmer said, "I'm disappointed, but I can understand his decision and the pain and suffering his family has endured." He's a hero again, not a defeated pro-tax advocate.

Remember, this is an opinion column. And my opinion is that Rochelle has no idea of dropping out of the race. And here's how we will be able to tell for sure: If the Democrat Party truly believes Rochelle is serious about resigning, then they will leave no stone unturned, and no dollar unspent, in finding and promoting the strongest write-in candidate they can possibly come up with. One who can beat Mae Beavers in November! Remember, the control of the Senate and the lieutenant governor's seat is at stake. But if they just go through the motions and provide only half-hearted support for a write-in candidate no one has ever heard of, then you will know that the fix is in.

Rochelle will win the Democrat primary, and his name will be on the November ballot. Along about the middle of September or the first of October, and still professing his reluctance, Sen. Rochelle will respond to the groundswell of public acclaim, sacrifice his retirement plans, and for the greater good of the people of the state of Tennessee, agree to run again. And for the children. We can't forget the children.

He would never have been able to buy all the free and favorable media publicity that will bring in just weeks prior to the election! And we will have discovered the "shell" under which Rochelle has been hiding. Ain't politics fun?

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Ed Wood is a resident of Sparta, TN. His column is published each Wednesday in the Crossville Chronicle.