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David Spates Combine the sports page with financial news The Vegas odds makers are missing out on a
gold mine. It's simple. They need to "handicap" the
stock market in a clear and concise way. If the casino owners
could pull that one off, the money they'd make from the stock
market would make the casino profits look like tip money by comparison. I would love to invest more than I do, but
my problem is that I just don't know where to put my hard-earned
bread. I would feel more comfortable laying down a few hundred
every weekend on sports. I'm fairly certain I could pick game
winners easier than I could pick the Wall Street winners, and
that's where the sports bookies could really cash in - by inserting
the simplicity of sports gambling into the world of investing. Here's what I mean. During the fall, in every major daily newspaper
in America, they list the point spreads for that weekend's college
and pro football games. For those of you who don't know what
the point spreads mean, it's simply a number indicating by how
many points the game's expected victor will win. For example,
Tennessee was favored to beat Notre Dame by 7 points. The score
was 28-18. If you put money on Tennessee, you won. If, however,
you put money on the Vols and they won by only 3 points, you
would have lost. To the casual sports fan, Tennessee's late touchdown
was merely superfluous points that secured a win, but to gamblers,
it was everything - a killer and godsend, depending on the bet.
(The point spreads, incidentally, are of sincere interest only
to the gambling community, legal and illegal. The newspapers'
sports editors may say otherwise, but that's the fact. Only gamblers
care whether a team wins by 10 rather than 11 points.) I don't gamble (much), I understand point
spreads. I can usually spot a spread that I think is dead on
or one that is way out of whack. What I need is for someone to
apply the simplicity of point spreads to the stock market. I'd like to invest much more than I do, but
I find the options overwhelming. If it could be boiled down to
a simple number or two, I'd be all over it. This would be a great
time to invest. I do know this. The stock market is down,
prices are down and people are selling off their stocks like
crazy. I understand basic market principles. Buy low, sell high
- that's pretty much it in a nutshell. Today's stock prices are
lower than they have been in some time, and now would be a great
time to take a shot. The question is, on what horse do I put my
money? The answer is simple, in a way. I'd have to ask someone
who knows more about this than I and then put the money where
he says. OK, fine. So who do I ask? There's the REAL question.
The issue is no longer where to put the money. We agree that
I don't have the knowledge or the experience to play the stock
market by myself. The question is now whose advice do I take?
And that's where I stop. There are guys with whom I went to high school
who are now brokers, analysts, investors, financial advisers,
whatever. That scares me. Some of those guys are complete idiots.
I don't mean they were idiots in high school and I simply presume
them to still be idiots. I've run into a few over the years,
and they're still just as clueless as they were way back when.
We all know it doesn't take very long to recognize that someone
is an idiot. For you and me, the savvy, 20 seconds usually does
it. These guys are confirmed idiots, and yet people seek their
financial advice. What if the guy whose advice I heed is an idiot
I was unable to spot quickly enough? I didn't go to high school
with ALL the world's financial advisers. It's all a gamble anyway. In all seriousness,
I contend that betting on sports isn't significantly different
than investing in the stock market. Success in both requires experience, research and a little intuition. There are going to be some unforeseeable upsets, whether it be unranked Michigan State throwing a game-winning touchdown with one second on the clock to defeat sixth-ranked Michigan, or oodles of tech stocks going down the toilet. There are no sure things. My daughter probably will want to attend college,
and some smart investments on my part would make the bills go
down a little easier. The question is whether I should be in
contact with Charles The Broker or Vinny The Hook. Both seem rather dubious. · · · |