CROSSVILLE CHRONICLE

¥ North Korea and China The United States has withdrawn its troops and nuclear weapons from South Korea. An ignorant, demented North Korean dictator decides the time has come to invade South Korea. North Korean commandos thunder across the 38th parallel.
Beijing, figuring that the United States will move conventional forces to South Korea, decides to use that window of opportunity to seize the small islands that control the South China Sea and its oil.

¥ Iran A fanatical regime has developed some nuclear bombs plus missiles to deliver them. Iran invades small oil-rich Persian Gulf states and key islands that control the sea lanes. The dictator explodes one nuclear bomb over his own desert, and announces that he will explode another one over a European city unless all U.S. forces leave the gulf region.

¥Mexico A Castro-ite populist demagogue has seized power and is looting Mexico's economy and terrorizing its people, millions of whom are heading north. The U.S. president fortifies the border and sends three armored columns into Mexico. His goal is to smash the regime and, after six months, hold an election.

¥Russia While still in political and economic chaos, Russia has elected a regime based on Slavic nationalism. It has quickly rebuilt the country's armed forces and secretly developed a respectable anti-missile defense system. Russian tanks thunder across the Polish border, then meet resistance in the Czech Republic. The Russian dictator hits the Czechs with a nuclear bomb, and resistance ceases. NATO forces in Germany and France cave in under the nuclear threat and become Russian colonies. The Americans cannot threaten the Russians with nuclear weapons, because we have no defense against intercontinental missiles.

¥ Japan A populist demagogue comes to power and decides to send his high-tech forces southward to grab the oil, rubber, rice and metals of Malaysia and Indonesia. He grabs the Philippines en route. The United States, meanwhile, has only Guam left in the western Pacific. The Japanese overrun it. Japanese planes and cruise missiles strike hard at China, to keep it in line. Japan's demagogue plans to seize Australia.

The book points out that we have wide commitments, and under President Clinton have even expanded them. At the same time, we have reduced our military capabilities, and also our intelligence efforts. Above all, the book's message is that we need a missile defense system in place.

But would a missile defense system work? Mr. Weinberger maintains, persuasively, that the strategic defense initiative the so-called Star Wars system was shelved for political, not technological, reasons.

Jeffrey Hart is a freelance writer whose column is published periodically in the Crossville Chronicle.